Lets start by a qualifying statement. I am no Defence Analyst. But I have a little bit of common sense and quite a bit of financial world experience. Put these two things together and you come to a conclusion that money makes the world go round. May it be politics, national economic growth plan, strategical and regional dominance aspirations or even outright maintenance of neighborly enmity. Money is required for all of this.
How does money relate in this scenario to Pulwama attacks ?
Well, it does not to Pulwama attack but it does to Pakistan. Pakistan needs money. Pakistan needs economic betterment for its survival. Pakistan needs regional and global stability for its economy to grow. Let us examine in depth.
Political Will To Resolve The Issues:
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan in his first speech addressed our long standing enemy, someone we have fought wars with, India, and offered to talk our issues out and move towards peace. Soon afterwards as a gesture of peace, he opened up Kartarpur Border.
Not even within a few months of that, Pakistani government offered to play a role in bringing Afghan Taliban to the negotiation table. A pure indication of a will to see peace in the region. And it delivered upon its offer by bringing all the parties involved to the negotiation table.
Let us take it a step further. A long standing Middle Eastern issue, Qatar, Yemen, Saudi and Iran, something that no other previous government had offered to play an intermediary in, without taking sides, to bring peace within the region, Pakistan did. It clearly stated that it will take no sides, and it did not. And it played its role and continues to do so as you read this article.
Now the money part.
Pakistan has been suffering an acute shortage of foreign reserves. A ballooning Current Account Deficit. An out of control import bill. Fiscal discipline issues that are choking the economy and if no foreign funds are invested, it would choke the economy, all economists know that.
If you wanted to hurt Pakistan, what would be the best thing to do at this very moment ?
With a fragile economy, a first after a long time effort to play a peace mediator, an American withdrawal from Afghanistan giving a clear policy dominance to Pakistan for bringing the Taliban to the peace table, and just 48 hours before the biggest Foreign Direct Investment from the middle east in Pakistan’s history, KSA and its offer to invest $24 billion through the visit of The Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, a perfect timing to create a controversy.
The Indian Elections:
And how can we forget Modi and his old tactics. We all know, as Pakistanis or foreigners, that India does not sell in Pakistan when it comes to elections. Not a single election in Pakistan’s 72 year history was ever based on a narrative against India. Pakistan has enough of its own issues to be addressed in election campaigning. India, never has and never will come into the picture when it comes to Pakistan and political campaigning.
But we all know that within India, Pakistan sells like cold water bottle in a heated desert. Pakistan was used by Modi in the past for his elections. Pakistan will again be used by Modi for anti Pakistan and pro Indian sympathy vote. Any foreign or regional political analysts knows that.
So at a time when Pakistan has everything to lose, needs foreign funding and is just beginning to get it, playing a role as a peacemaker in the region and delivering on it, why in the world would Pakistan need an incident like Pulwama ? It would be a military, political and economic death.
And on the other hand, Modi, and I clearly differentiate between Modi and the Indians, Modi stands to gain everything. Everything for years to come. Power. Money. Fame and more power.
So you decide who gains from Pulwama ? I do not. You do not. And Pakistan does not.
Author: Mir Mohammad AliKhan